(11th May 2012, Africa Confidential )--International financial institutions rank Ethiopia
as one of the fastest growing economies but debates rage over its political
strategy and regional role
As business and political leaders descend on Addis
Ababa for the World Economic Forum on 9-11 May, Premier Meles Zenawi’s
government will be trumpeting its economic achievements. Visitors expecting a
war-torn land scarred by continuing famine will be shocked. Yet the economic
claims of the government, the World Bank and other international agencies
(which depend on state cooperation) deserve closer analysis.
On several big
issues, Meles has become the voice of Africa and de facto leader of the New
Partnership for African Development. He attends Group of 8 and G-20 meetings,
says the right things about climate change and gets on well with United States President
Barack Obama and Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron on Somalia.
In cold statistics, Meles’s government – in
power for 21 years – has presided over a formidable economic turnaround. A
recent World Bank report suggested that Ethiopia navigated the global economic
crisis in 2008-9 better than many others. Modest declines in exports,
remittances and foreign investment have recovered to more than pre-crisis
levels. The International Monetary Fund recently suggested that Ethiopia could
join the middle-income countries if its rapid growth continued. All this
follows government claims of average 11% annual economic growth for the last
eight years. When pressed, IMF and World Bank officials concede the
government’s calculations are ‘optimistic’ but ‘not by more than 1 or 2%’.
In November 2010, Ethiopia launched an ambitious
five-year Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), aiming to improve the economy,
incomes and social indicators. The government finds Western models largely
irrelevant, as was made clear at the opening of the new Chinese-built
headquarters of the African Union in January. Meles talks of a ‘Democratic
Development State’ on the lines of Taiwan, South Korea and (in the background)
China.
Critical outsiders talk of ‘developmental
authoritarianism’, lumping Ethiopia with Rwanda as its leading exponents. The
idea is that the central government keeps a tight grip on political and social
freedom, invests heavily in roads, power plants and communications, and
promotes access to markets for small-scale producers. Apart from concern about
political freedom, outside critics argue that developing states cannot credibly
take on that role, even if backed by lavish Chinese finance. Read more from Africa Confidential »
No comments:
Post a Comment