Monday, November 21, 2011

News Analysis: Somali military conflict turns into regional war against Al-Shabaab (by David Musyoka and Chrispinus Omar)

(Nov. 21, NAIROBI, (Xinhua)--What began a month ago as a temporary military expedition into Somalia by Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) to repulse a militia group is transforming rapidly into a major regional war against the Al-Shabaab after two other Horn of Africa states joined the fray.

The prospect of a major regional war looming is in the offing following revelations that the African Union is rallying more member-states to donate 20,000 troops to bolster its peacekeeping force in Somalia, whose mandate changed to peace-enforcers following repeated fatal attacks by the Al-Shabaab militia group.

With the United Nations and the African Union unable to provide a clear roadmap to securing lasting peace, Ethiopia has reportedly rolled its military tanks into Somalia to prop a one-month old campaign by its southern neighbor Kenya against the militia group.

AU now wants to build on the presence of Kenyan army in Somalia that seeks to root out Al Qaeda-backed Al-Shabaab militia that fights to unseat the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) led by President Sheikh Ahmed Sharif. However, the entry into fray of the Ethiopia and Djibouti came earlier than had been expected.

Deputy Special Representative of the African Union Chairperson Wafula Wamunyinyi who prior to the excursions had told Xinhua that the AU had given the three states the nod to move their troops into Somalia in a joint regional military offensive.

The special envoy said the Ethiopian military operation had been timed for December, while Djibouti would have come on board in January. Wamunyinyi revealed further that West African nation Sierra Leone had agreed to contribute 3,000 troops by next January.

Rwanda and Tanzania have too indicated willingness to send troops to Somalia to rein the Islamic insurgents, who in twin bombings that killed 80 people in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, in reprisal attacks for the latter's support of President Sharif's government.

"Kenya is targeting areas where the militants are in control. And whether this is a conventional war or repulsion of a guerrilla group, it is important that the atrocities committed by Al-Shabaab must be brought to an end.

"Even if the operation is short term, there has to be an 'end- state' to ensure the terror group is checked," Wamunyinyi, who has a background in military operations, said. End state is a military jargon for an exit strategy from a war or operation.

However, the move by AU to support Somalia's neighbours' military operations is precipitating a fresh challenge: who takes credit once Al-Shabaab threat is eliminated?

The three frontline states – Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti -- had initially been kept out of the initial peace roadmap lest their inclusion escalate the insurgency in the volatile, terrorist infested Horn of Africa nation that has historically waged war against its neighbors with aim of establishing a borderless Islamic caliphate. Read more from Shanghai Daily »

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