(July 28, 2012, The East African)--With Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi seriously ill, East African
leaders need to start worrying about what his impending exit will mean
for the region.
Though the Ethiopian government has denied reports that the
country’s leader has been admitted to a Belgian hospital, and even that
he has gone into a coma, there is little doubt that Zenawi is not well. Three years shy of completing his fourth term in
office, this is not the way many imagined Zenawi — who has towered over
the country’s political landscape — would end his years in power.
As Zenawi’s whereabouts and the status of his health remain top secret, inevitably, there is feverish speculation over what happens next in the Horn of Africa nation. Regionally, Zenawi has been one of the key players in the fight against the Somali militant organisation Al-Shabaab. He also actively participated in resolving the dispute between Sudan and South Sudan, which has seen the two countries fight several brief border wars.
Zenawi has also been one of the movers behind massive development projects like Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET).
In Summary
Infrastructure: Zenawi has also been one of the movers behind massive development projects like Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET).
As Zenawi’s whereabouts and the status of his health remain top secret, inevitably, there is feverish speculation over what happens next in the Horn of Africa nation. Regionally, Zenawi has been one of the key players in the fight against the Somali militant organisation Al-Shabaab. He also actively participated in resolving the dispute between Sudan and South Sudan, which has seen the two countries fight several brief border wars.
Zenawi has also been one of the movers behind massive development projects like Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET).
Many analysts in the region worry about the political situation
in a post-Zenawi Ethiopia, and are sceptical that the country can pull
off a smooth transition. Prof Abdillahi Jama, a political science lecturer
at Kenyatta University in Nairobi, said the Intergovernmental Authority
on Development (Igad) and other countries in East Africa need to get
involved to ensure a smooth transition for the good of Ethiopia and the
region.
“Ethiopia is not just an important country in the greater Horn of Africa but also in the rest of Africa and the world,” said Mr Jama, who is also a member of the Independent Federal Constitutional Commission of Somalia.
Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country, has the second largest population after Nigeria, and apart from a five-year occupation by Mussolini’s Italy, was never colonised. Ethiopia has close ties with Kenya and Uganda, and Zenawi and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame are thought to be close.
“Ethiopia is not just an important country in the greater Horn of Africa but also in the rest of Africa and the world,” said Mr Jama, who is also a member of the Independent Federal Constitutional Commission of Somalia.
Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country, has the second largest population after Nigeria, and apart from a five-year occupation by Mussolini’s Italy, was never colonised. Ethiopia has close ties with Kenya and Uganda, and Zenawi and Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame are thought to be close.
In Summary
Security: Regionally, Zenawi has been one of the key
players in the fight against the Somali militant organisation Al
Shabaab. He has also been crucial in mediating in the dispute between
Sudan and South Sudan.
Infrastructure: Zenawi has also been one of the movers behind massive development projects like Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Project (LAPSSET).
Stability:
Many analysts in the region worry about the political situation in a
post-Zenawi Ethiopia, and are sceptical that the country can pull off a
smooth transition.
Geopolitics: Led by Ethiopia,
which contributes to over 80 per cent of the Nile’s water, Tanzania,
Rwanda and Uganda signed an agreement on the Nile River Basin
Co-operative Framework in 2010 without the involvement of Sudan and
Egypt. Read more from The East African »
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